The second Abuja summit, which has just been held behind closed doors, resulted in the decision to “move” the military forces on standby.
Thus order will be given to the military leaders so that they put in movement the forces in waiting.
Clearly, it is the showdown that looms on the horizon, even if the political authorities claim that the option of dialogue is still on the table.
This attitude of firmness is understandable, because the Nigerian junta has taken acts of defiance whose objective is to impose a fait accompli, such as the appointment of a new government.
ECOWAS is playing its credibility and refuses to accept that a fourth putsch, after Mali, Guinea-Conakry and Burkina, will not be “institutionalised” on its political and economic territory.
It should be remembered that ECOWAS has the military means to be respected, as it proved in Gambia, where the dictator Yaya Jammeh was forced into exile.
In Guinea-Bissau, it restored and guaranteed the democratic system.
With Niger, it will be another game, but if ECOWAS is determined, it can restore constitutional order.
The Nigerien putschists do not control the whole army, even less the whole country.
They do not have the means and could not resist a well-planned offensive by seasoned ECOWAS forces.
The risks are numerous, however: blackmail on President Mohamed Bazoum and his family held hostage, possible collateral damage, etc.
As for the bravado of other putschists in Mali, Burkina and Guinea-Conakry, these are empty words.
These shoddy regimes have no base, let alone legitimacy.
The people of Niger will not follow the putschists who will be able, at most, to mobilize brainwashed young people, without any military training.
The showdown could be a categorical imperative, if the putschists do not back down, because accepting their diktat is a danger for all ECOWAS states.
Terrorists could take over uranium mines and fuel a criminal trade with unpredictable consequences.
What is being played out in Niger even goes beyond the borders of the African continent.
It is indeed a continuation of the global fight against destructive terrorism/jihadism.
Firmness is to be encouraged, with a last window of opportunity, so to speak, left to a dialogue of truth.
